COVID-19: Where Are Melbourne’s Most Vulnerable Elderly Communities?
Much has been written about the COVID-19 virus in recent weeks. While outbreak figures are readily available, it’s hard to get an idea of how risk is spread across our cities.
Working from the basic premise that those aged over 80 are most at risk, we at Geografia thought it might be useful to get an idea of how this population is distributed across Greater Melbourne, and how easily they can access a hospital bed if needed.
The following map presents regions with high numbers of residents aged over 80 who require some level of assistance in daily life. It takes into consideration their proximity to public hospitals and the capacity of those hospitals (i.e. bed count). It then estimates the approximate competing demand for services. Due to data restrictions, this map only considers public hospitals.
As you can see from the map, there are three hot spots of under-supply. These could be considered highly vulnerable pockets of the community. But, as with all complex systems, these three hotspots are not the same. The scale and the characteristics of them differ substantially.
RINGWOOD and SURROUNDS: Low Service Capacity
The most obvious identified hotspot is the region surrounding Ringwood. While the number of elderly residents in the region is not especially high, this corridor extending along the Maroondah Highway falls in a region poorly serviced by hospitals, with little capacity nearby to service those who fall sick.
MORNINGTON PENINSULA: Few Alternative Options
In both Rosebud and Mornington Peninsula there are isolated areas of large populations of elderly residents. While both areas have a local hospital with decent capacity, their limited access to nearby alternatives increases their vulnerability.
RESERVOIR & GLENROY: Highest Population Concentrations
This small pocket in Melbourne’s north is home to the highest numbers of at-risk elderly residents in Greater Melbourne. While the area is near to numerous hospitals, this high local density could make the area vulnerable if there were to be a local outbreak.
Admittedly there are numerous risk factors associated with the COVID-19 virus. This is just one small piece of a much larger problem currently facing the public health sector. Without doubt, though, spatial technology has a role in helping manage the issue in the coming months.
